The Only Thing to Fear is Fear Itself

The subject today is about science, not technology.

You see, I recently read State of Fear by Michael Crichton, and am feeling somewhat vindicated. Based on my analytical nature, together with a healthy dose of skepticism, I have long questioned all the doom and gloom pseudo-science about global warming from our news media, especially when they predict global catastrophes like the state of Florida being submerged in 50 years by melting icecaps. The basis of my skepticism comes from reading about the extreme climate changes that have occurred on our planet over the last few million years, and most recently, by books like State of Fear.

We are actually at the end of the fourth major glacial epoch; the current one having gone on for a million years. At the height of the current ice age, ice as deep as two miles blanketed North America as far south as St. Louis and Europe as far south as France. Given that such extreme global climate changes occur naturally (i.e. not man made), it is ludicrous to me that “scientists” can extrapolate 100 years of temperature readings into a global climate trend that they can definitively tie to human causes. Hell, for all we know, maybe the magnetic poles are fixing to reverse again as they have done 9 times in the last 3.6 million years. If that should happen, no doubt some scientist eager to get a research grant will postulate that we have taken too much iron out of the ground and redistributed it willy nilly.

Apparently Mr. Crichton shares my skepticism. As a student of science and it’s impact on society, he actually spent three years researching every scientific journal and publication he could find on the subject and concluded that the “theory” of global warming was nothing more than that, and more importantly there was a great body of data that contradicts this so-called theory – e.g. data that shows that Antarctica is actually getting colder, not warmer, and the Ross Ice shelf that environmentalists like to focus on only represents about 1% of the mass of ice in Antarctica. Also the mean temperature of North America has either stayed the same or decreased over the past 100 years, suggesting that we Americans were right in denouncing the Kyoto treaty.

After a great deal of study, Mr. Crichton has adopted the risky position of taking on both the environmental establishment and the media in his latest novel. It’s nice to come across influential people that actually have something important to say, as opposed to self-important yahoos like Tom Cruise.

After reading his book and noting the 175 or so listings in the bibliography, references to scientific journals and other publications that he studied on the subject, my respect for the man has risen considerably above what I would have for a normal novelist. Although I understand that a novelist has a responsibility to do research and fact checking, especially if the subject is technical in nature, the depth of Mr. Crichton’s study is very impressive. He even goes to the trouble of summarizing his personal views on the subjects covered in the book, in order to clairfy the points he is trying to make here. This is the first “novel” I have ever read that has over thirty pages of scientific bibliography and comments.

His premise is that there are a great number of organizations that benefit from manipulating the truth about global crises, and that the whole issue of global warming is a complex, perpetuating media snowball ranging from subtle subterfuge to outright lies. He reminds the reader that the number of people who believe in something is totally irrelevant to whether it is true or not. If the science doesn’t support the theory, then all you have is a lot of people who believe in something that may not be true. As he says “an educated guess is still just a guess.” This is clearly a area that he feels strongly about and is not just another novel to him.

Suffice it to say that until someone can accurately predict the weather for at least 20 years running (no one has succeeded in this to date), I remain convinced that the global warming “phenomenon” is 1) little more than a construct formed by carefully selected scientific data that supports the premise while ignoring all the conflicting data, 2) being used as a tool by certain disingenuous scientists to gain exposure and grant money, and 3) a handy emotionally charged issue being abused by environmentalists to grow their power and organizational clout, and loved by the media because it fuels peoples fears and sells newspapers and TV time.

The most interesting part of this whole issue is that virtually no one really knows if a slight increase in global temperature over a hundred or a thousand years is necessarily bad. Who can say that it won’t change global weather patterns and bring more moisture to Africa to support more farming and save millions of lives? Who’s to say that a 2 degree increase in temperature in one part of the globe won’t be offset by a 2 degree decrease in other areas that is beneficial?

Until someone develops a computer climate model that is even slightly accurate, I choose to think that all this BS about global warming is nothing more than hot air.

Dear Vonage

Approximately 3 1/2 months ago, I received an automated e-mail message from Vonage stating that my adapter did not respond correctly to an automated software upgrade. I checked and discovered I had no dialtone. The instructions told me to try to reset my adapter, and if unsuccesful, reply to the e-mail and a replacement would be sent "immediately" along with a one month credit on my next billing statement.

After 6 days went by with no dial tone, no replacement adapter showing up in the mail, and no confirmation that my reply was even received, I called. What I found out was that nothing was happening at Vonage regarding my problem. The person I spoke to said that there was no indication on my records that a replacement adapter was being sent, or that one was needed.

The representative was very polite and worked with me over the phone to try to correct the problem. Resetting the adapter once more had no effect, so finally he tried switching the service to the second line on my Linksys adapter. That worked, in fact, line quality improved slightly over what I had before. I mentioned the one month credit promised, and he said it would appear on my next billing statemtent.

When the next statement appeared, no credit was there. Surprise surprise.

I again called and this time, another polite Vonage person was able to apply the credit immediately, which appeared on the subsequent billing statement.

Now, all of three months later, I get an e-mail from "Vonage Management" indicating that your records show that no replacement adapter was ever sent, and asking if I still need one. The e-mail also directed me to call the Technical Staff at "the following number." No number followed, suggesting that maybe you didn't really want me to call.

This clearly indicates that for a communication company, your internal communications are in near total disarray. Your follow-up systems are woefully inadequate as well.

Because my VOIP phone is working fine now and I don't wish to change my number at this time, I will continue the service. However, as a technology writer, I certainly cannot recommend Vonage to any of my readers.

If you attribute these problems to the rapid growth of Vonage, I don't buy it. Come on guys, your folks sent me a follow-up 3 months after a service call number was assigned.

A well-managed company will anticipate needs before they overwhelm current systems. Vonage is certainly not there yet.

Regards,
John Woolington

Bonjour

To my 3 loyal readers, sorry for the long delay in posting. I just returned from an 18-day holiday in France, driving around the countryside trying very hard to avoid getting killed by crazy French drivers.

As I mentioned previously, my daughter has been studying in Paris under the study abroad program so we decided to join her at the end of the semester and tour the countryside for a couple of weeks. I suppose I could have stolen a few hours here and there to write a brief post or two, but the reality is that there are very few places to get on the internet in rural France. We had a laptop with us but I barely had time late in the evening to upload and organize our digital pictures, given the way that my wife likes to organize vacations. Lets just say that she likes to “fill the day.”

So, now that I am back in the land of large cars and wide streets, I finally have some time to collect my thoughts. The first thing I noticed in France, even in Paris, was that except for business usage, the internet does not appear to be nearly as much a part of people’s lives as here in L.A. As I mentioned previously, the American University doesn’t require that students submit their reports or even get their assignments online. When they need to do research online, most students just use the shared workstations at school or go to an internet cafe. The latter is still very common for private e-mail or casual internet use. When they do have a computer at home, most use dial-up rather than broadband. We all got the strong impression that the French just don’t see the internet as being important in their personal lives. Here in Los Angeles, it is rare for people to not have a private e-mail account and internet cafe’s are fast becoming a thing of the past.

The second interesting part of my trip was getting around. We were lucky and got an upgraded car with a navigation system. Truth is, I hadn’t even thought about asking for one and was pleasantly surprised when I sat down in the car. In fact, when the screen first came to life with some sort of welcome notice in French, I first thought it was just a fancy audio system that was going to be difficult to translate. When I noticed GPS in the corner, I thought, wow, it”s going to be fun to see if this thing is really what people rave about.

Although in past blog posts I have made comments about GPS technology, this was the first time I had a chance to really test it out. It turned out to be extremely useful, especially in the circumstances we found ourselves in France. After picking up the car and navigating our way to our timeshare the old fashioned way, I sat down in the evening and studied the instruction book a bit. I then went out to the car while my wife and daughter were getting organized and worked my way though the commands to get the language changed to English. That took several minutes as the DVD uploaded and reset everything. Then this pleasant female voice with a British accent said hello and announced that the process was finished.

Over the next few days, we figured out how to use the various features with my wife entering in each destination, picking from among different routes offered, and trying the various settings for fastest route, shortest route, avoiding motorways, etc. The system also had data for tourist spots, gas stations, etc, but we didn’t find those to be very useful, opting to just enter in the city center and then finding our way around. Monique, as I decided to call her even though she had a British accent, was really quite smart. Although she didn’t always send us on routes that I would have picked, she always got us to our destination. Whether I picked shortest route or fastest route, she seemed to favor these tiny little rural roads that were barely wide enough for two cars to pass each other, some that forced one car partly off the road. This was pretty nerve racking for me given the speed that French people drive. There were many times I wondered if we would meet a big tour bus or truck around the next bend and that would be it for us. I’m sure that many people were cursing the fact that I was only driving the speed limit as they flew up behind me anxiously waiting to pass.

Of course, there were a number of mistakes in Monique’s database – things like one-way roads she tried to send us into, non-existent roundabout exits, telling us to turn into the middle of a wheatfield, even roads that were not on her map at all making it appear on her screen as if we were off-roading it. After several days we learned that we couldn’t just trust Monique implicitly. We had to do three things: listen to her voice instructions, glance at the on-screen map for clarification when a complex intersection was coming up, and pay attention to the signs. In Europe even with a GPS system, a good gut-level sense of direction is still an essential ingredient to successfully getting around.

When things went smoothly, I was feeling pretty good knowing that the person behind me hadn’t a clue that I was a tourist, navigating roundabouts and complex intersections quickly and confidently. I must say that there were very few times where we were stopped in an intersection arguing and frantically pointing this way or that way.

At one bed and breakfast we were staying at, the hosts commented about a bad experience they had with their first navigation systems. Apparently this one was pretty inaccurate, earning her the title “navi-bitch.” They said that they had to decommission her and get a replacement. For some odd reason, my first reaction was to come to Monique’s defense. After all, she hadn’t gotten us lost even once, and even amazed us at how well she led us through unmarked narrow streets in towns and villages and along country roads that we never would have tried.

Even though we had only been using it for about a week, we all came to the same conclusion: when renting a car in a foreign country, request a GPS system. With a little luck, the map data will be up to date and accurate and your travels will be greatly enhanced, Who knows, you may also develop a close personal relationship with him or her.

Half-Life of a Gizmo

In the human body, the half-life of most tissues is around two weeks. That is, it takes about two weeks for half of the molecules of a particular kind to be replaced. Some last longer, like calcium in bones, some much shorter. For instance, three million red blood cells die and are replaced every second. So naturally, being an engineer, I started wondering what is the half-life of an electronic gizmo? How much time will pass before half of the iPods sold today get replaced or made obsolete by something better?

For some things, the turnover rate is extremely short. Cellphones are in that phase now, as providers consolidate and upgrade their systems, and new features pop up every few months. Digital cameras are changing very fast as well, with prices on the decrease and features rapidly improving. Home computers continue to improve steadily, but they seem to have stabilized quite a bit, now that processor speed and storage space is no longer a big deal for most people. For some other things, like stereo components and TVs, prices have stayed about the same and the rate of change hasn’t been very fast. That will pick up though when the cost of plasma and LCD screens comes within reach of middle class consumers and the production numbers really take off.

So if you’re not a tech-obsessed “early adopter” and you’re comfortable waiting for the second or third generation of a product to come out, how do you judge when it’s time to buy? What I recommend is to pay attention to where the product is in it’s development cycle.

By development cycle, I don’t just mean the part of product development that occurs before an item starts manufacturing. I like to extend it out to include the first couple of product generations after a new item is introduced. New products come out all the time that have been rushed into production with little or no real-life testing by regular people. Awkward keyboards, poorly thought-out menus, buttons too small; all these things tell me that a product was designed in a hurry and is not ready for prime time. When you buy it, you are volunteering to be part of the development team, at your own expense.

If the gadget you are salivating over has been out for a while and gone through at least one major upgrade, or if it is the second or third entry into the market, you will usually get better value for your money than if you had purchased the first off the assembly line.

But here’s the catch. The downside to being a late adopter is that you have to contend with the obsolescence factor. Just as they get the bugs worked out and the ergonomics improved, out comes some totally new gizmo that changes the playing field once again. My guess is that the half-life of innovative new stuff is no more than 2-3 years. Not counting the tech addicts who upgrade their stuff every 9 months or less, most people will try to get several years of use out of their phone or laptop or mp2 player.

So, what does all this mean? It means that whole truckloads of not-so-old technology are being retired every day. Perfectly good phones, appliances, calculators, CPUs and CRTs are being put out of service. It’s a shame really.

What happens to all those gizmos that have been marginalized, rendered obsolete, disenfranchised? Some get recycled on E-Bay, many get trashed. Others are given to undeserving relatives, or more often end up in the basement. Pitifully few of these things get donated to organizations that pass them on to people in need. Instead they end up in your own personal technology museum, otherwise called your “basement” or “attic.”

What’s in your basement whose half-life could be extended in the home of a needy child?

Headline: "Google Transforms Into Hal"

The following dyslectic paragraph appeared in my e-mail today:

“I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer inwaht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh? yaeh and I awlyas thought slpeling was ipmorantt.”

I don’t know what kind of stroke results in the above, but I hope it doesn’t happen to me. I’ve noticed that my typing is getting a little worse, especially when I’m tired. I find myself occasionally transposing the two center letters in a four letter wrod, but I don’t think I ahve eevr tolltay scrweed up a logner wrod like smoe of toshe abvoe.

Thankfully my mind hasn’t devolved to that point yet, although it does appear to be heading that way. I suppose if I wanted to keep track of the slow demise of brain cells I could turn off “spell check as you type” and just activate it at the end of a page. That way I could keep tabs on how many words I misspell and gauge my mental acuity on a weekly basis. Forget it. Too much self awareness can be a bad thing.

You have to admit, it is amazing how the brain adapts – how you can actually read that first paragraph without that much trouble. The human brain is still an awesome bit of engineering any way you look at it. It’s also not likely to be upstaged anytime soon; certainly not by a pitiful little appliance like the one I’m typing on.

So, I’m thinking, what is the state of computing power today? Aren’t we getting close to duplicating the power of a human mind in silicon? No? What if you took the entire internet of connected computers and they could somehow communicate with each other independent of their human operators? Wouldn’t that be something if it didn’t self-destruct? You could even call it Hal. Maybe then you would have an entity that approaches the computing power and intrepretive genius of the homo-sapien brain.

Yesterday I happened upon a blog post that explained very clearly how to put your pants on. I found this both humorous and informative. If such a simple explanation for virtually everything that we need to do on a daily basis were available somewhere on the internet, then heck, Hal could conceivably rule the world!

You would just need some sort of incredible indexing system and probably some way to decide what is worthwhile and what is crap. That last bit is going to be the hardest, given the preponderance of crap out there.

No dobut Golgoe has sotimenhg in the wroks - of cruose wtih a mroe clveer nmae tahn Hal.