iRobot, the company that makes the “Roomba” and a floor cleaning robot called “Scooba” (both built at the toy factory in Guanzhou that I visited last year) is also building military robots designed to carry weapons. Recently iRobot signed a contract to add tasers to their industrial/military robots.This is all happening in a climate of significant military interest in funding the development of tactical robots designed to“Hunt Down Uncooperative Humans.” These will be developed initially for military use. However, given the speed at which technology enters our culture, I expect to see robots replace expensive police very soon.
If shortly you see hundreds of bug-like creatures patrolling the streets of Santa Monica in the evening, I suggest you make every effort to suppress your girlfriend’s impulse to insult them. These creatures probably won’t be programmed with highly evolved ethics routines and you may find yourself either seriously incapacited or worse. Let’s hope they don’t also contract with Microsoft to write the software. Maybe by version 4.0 they will have gotten all the bugs out.
We all know about the Geek Squad, the highly successful subsidiary of Best Buy started in 1994 to help you solve your pesky tech installation and service problems.
The idea is great and sorely needed by all of us who cannot figure out how to get viruses off our computers or how to set up that new HD flat screen and get the damn sound to come through.
But the service doesn’t come cheap considering how long it normally takes them. If you’ve ever had one of their “secret agents” out to your house, you probably experienced something like the following:
You make the appointment
They come out in a day or two
They arrive and you explain the problem.
They poke around behind your TV, move a cable, pick up the remote, change a setting, and they’re done.
You pay them $100 for their travel time and the 12 minutes they were actually working on your problem.
They leave
You feel stupid
So what’s the alternative?
For today, the alternative is to figure out how to do it yourself by reading the manual or going online and spending time searching through forums for the same problem, or, and this is the best alternative from your perspective, call upon your built-in tech support agent. That would be your spouse or son-in-law or teenage daughter.
But what about tomorrow? Will it get to the point where you have to set up a yearly contract with the Geek Squad? Will we all develop a deep dislike of anyone with an Indian accent? Will geeks finally gain superiority over the technologically-impaired on Harmony.com? I don’t think so.
Call me an optimist, but I really believe that over time in spite of the rapidly increasing complexity of technology, the problems we face will get better. The premise for this non-intuitive idea is that as memory continues to get cheaper and embedded computing power continues to grow rapidly in everything from your toaster oven to your satellite receiver, these things will start to fix themselves. Hey, it could happen!
By fix themselves, I mean that they will either 1) walk you through a troubleshooting and repair process on their control panel, or 2) go online themselves and, with the help of the mother ship, fix themselves without you ever knowing.
It sounds like science fiction right now but believe it, the market will force the issue. Billions of dollars are being spent by high tech companies to handle all the service calls that their poorly integrated products create. The best example for me at the moment is home theater. With the advent of HD and flat screens, the whole cabling and signal management problem has gotten much more complicated. Some receivers pass through the audio, some do not. As the commercial says, you need an engineering degree to figure it out.
Computers also have a long way to go before they can protect themselves from getting messed up thanks to Microsoft. Automobiles will also diagnose themselves and hopefully, once they become all electric when the internal combustion engine is finally retired, become easier to diagnose and repair.
Of course, before long your home computer named “Hal” will develop an intimate relationship with your home theater and your car and your pool equipment and your toaster oven.
That’s kind of a scary thought actually.
“Hello John, you were up late last night. I noticed you ended a sentence with a preposition while you were writing your last article. Do you need a vacation?”
As someone who was trained in school to appreciate the scientific method, I naturally question issues that are promoted with extreme passion in the media and presented in such a way that you are expected to just accept the premise without question. The conclusion that human-produced CO2 is the overwhelming cause of global warming clearly falls in this category for me.
In the first place, a significant number of noted scientists and climatologists believe that anthropogenic CO2 is at most a minor part of the entire climate picture. Some argue that they are actually in the majority (see the link at the end of this post), proving that there is no consensus whatsoever on this important fact. This however, does not stop environmentalists from using any means to get our attention, including resorting to gross exaggeration or blatant lies.
Secondly, there are dozens and dozens of mathematical models one can choose from to predict the effects of global warming over the next century. The problem with all of them is that you have to assume a whole host of values for most of the factors that make up the incredibly complex global weather system. By manipulating these variables in the models, you can literally generate any scenario that supports your position.
I often listen to NPR in the afternoon and a couple days ago they interviewed scientists on how much the sea level is expected to rise over the next 100 years. The estimates range from 6 inches to 10 feet and the responsible scientists openly admit that they really have no idea how fast glaciers will melt over that period of time, nor are they certain what the temperatures will be in those regions over such a long period. But again, there are some who, simply to get attention, will loudly and with resounding certainty claim it is going to be 10 feet.
Unfortunately, our news media thrives on bad news and absolutely loves to hear these kinds of wild irresponsible predictions. All they have to do is preface their news bite with “scientists claim” or “a new study shows that...” bla bla bla and we tend to believe it.
The unimaginable complexity of global weather is exactly why scientists cannot predict a hurricane more than about 2 weeks out and yet no one seems to question the pundits that predict the average temperature of the entire planet 5,200 weeks into the future! Unfortunately, in the current social climate of green this and green that, scientists who point out the folly in these predictions are effectively silenced by denying publication or having their funding cut back. It’s not only the scientists who are being silenced. Politicians are even more inclined to take the safe position. Those few who are brave enough to take a stand for reason are getting rarer and rarer. I ran across one speech that is to me a breath of fresh air coming from an elected official. Tom McClintock, State Senator in California, early this year spoke about the teaching of Global Warming in our schools. Note the comments about the peer reviews of CO2 effects and the review of Al Gore’s presentation by the British.
Ask yourself this. What if we totally screw up our economy trying to “stop global warming” only to discover in 5 or 10 years that human produced CO2 really has very little effect on the outcome? How many people will lose their jobs because businesses cannot continue to make a profit under the new “green laws?” How much will the cars of the future cost that meet all the proposed environmental laws?
Important Note: The number of adherents to a position has no relation to its truth. Thousands of years of science versus religion has proven this over and over. We need to encourage debate on this issue and not allow the green movement to turn into a belief system that ignores science.
I sent my friend Eric a recent ad from Amazon about the Kindle electronic book.
His reply was “Solution for a problem that didn’t exist?”
I totally understand his reaction and have been on the same page for many years (sorry, couldn't resist the pun). But I suspect this is probably like the DVR, something you didn't think you needed until you tried it. I have a DVR that I got through Dish Network and I love it. I set it to record the shows that I happen to like, and it records all of them over the next week or so, or just the new ones, depending on how I set it. Then I watch them when I have time, without the commercials. I often wonder how I got along without it.
So, although I have resisted the urge to buy an electronic book due to the high price and the hard to read screens, I am seriously thinking about it now with the promise of electronic paper. After reading some of the user feedback, I'm expecting the next version of the Kindle to have more memory, better ergonomics and lower cost.
It's like digital encyclopedias versus paper ones. As e-books evolve, you will be able to search a document, highlight a paragraph, tag it, save it, and email it to friends just like you do on a PC, only in this case it will be in a form factor that is much more comfortable to read than sitting at a desk staring at a monitor, i.e. on a bus or on your balcony overlooking the Swiss alps. The Kindle is networked like a cellphone, not WiFi, so it should work almost anywhere.
Eventually, the DRM legal issues will get worked out so it is not so restrictive, and you can share passages with friends or resell your copy. Maybe they will even get to the point where the creative guy gets the bulk of the royalties, and the middle man just gets a small percentage.
I still prefer the character and feel of a real book and the fact that you don't need batteries, but at some point the two curves will cross and electronic books will become "better than cutting down trees" for many purposes. For example, my kids had to lug 30 lbs of textbooks back and forth between school and home every day. You could take your back out reaching across the car seat to grab one of those backpacks. That's at least one good argument right there.
I think it’s high time we moved away from the antiquated low tech way we have of identifying vehicles on the road. I’m talking about the dumb metal plate with letters and numbers embossed on it that we call tags or plates. We now have the technology today to do much better.
As has been done in the UK and other places, it is time we switched to RFID license plates. The new plate would be made of nylon or some very tough plastic composite material with a chip embedded in it. The chip would be programmed with the VIN number of the vehicle, the make, model, year built, registered owner, etc. The RFID chip would probably need to be passive with a large antenna so that it doesn't need to be connected electrically to the vehicle.
Benefits:
Ability to confirm that the plate goes with the vehicle just by matching the make and model of the car.
Ability for police and parking enforcement to accurately identify the registration and eliminate errors of writing down the tag number or errors in radioing in the numbers. This is especially useful with vanity plates that have some arcane combination of symbols and letters and numbers that are easy to misinterpret.
Faster way to ID a vehicle electronically. The officer would just aim a reader at the car and the info would pop up on his screen, no need to type it in on a computer or call it in.
Ability to scan vehicles at full speed at checkpoints
Better control of vehicles at the borders
Cars that run red lights would be accurately identified – no need for photographs that are hard to read during the daytime and almost useless at night.
Automated speed traps. A combination of radar and RFID readers would be incontrovertible evidence of speeders.
You’re may wonder if I work for the justice department. Actually no, but I am an advocate for better traffic control. I am convinced that it is the wild guy on the freeways that sets up situations where massive collisions occur. We all notice the guy who is weaving all over the place, passing around traffic at 85 in the slow lane, constantly changing lanes in an attempt to go 20 or 30 mph faster than the prevailing traffic. He is the guy who cuts in front of people scaring them into over reacting and causing accidents. This is often the guy who leaves dead people in his wake, unaware of the consequences of his reckless driving. Why does he get away with it? Because he enjoys effective anonymity on the road. Unless there is a cop right there, he is free to drive any way he wants with impunity.
I watched one of these guys on the way to work a few months ago. He was totally out of control. He was making such drastic lane changes in his truck that you could see the whole vehicle tilt left and right as he was careening around other cars. It wondered if he was on drugs. When you see such a blatantly unsafe driver you instantly think “where is a cop when you need one.”
So, consider the impact on people’s driving habits if they knew that their speed or their driving was being constantly monitored as they go through every intersection. The RFID readers and radar detectors can be small enough to be unnoticeable, possibly buried in the pavement like the traffic sensors. Inconspicuous enough that you start to believe that they couldbe anywhere. Soon you pay more attention to your speed and you drive more conservatively knowing that the police have the advantage of technology. It is as if you amplified the effect of people driving in the vicinity of police cars where they take it easy and watch their driving.
Another thing to consider is our ever growing traffic congestion. As drivers pay more attention to speed and avoid reckless actions, there will be less stress on the road, fewer lane changes, which translates to less congestion, less road rage, an easier drive to work. Small changes in our driving habits would also save gasoline. A more conservative foot on the gas pedal will save a huge amount of energy across the entire population.
It is time to move away from the no-tech license plate and encourage people to be more responsible. A little psychology can save energy and so many lives.
To those who counter with the argument that RFID is somehow an invasion of privacy, my response is that if you are one of the people running red lights and doing 50 in a 35 zone, you have made the conscious decision to ignore other people's safety and deserve to be caught. RFID license plates are just a more effective way to make drivers accountable for their actions and in the process, make the roads safer.
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