Half-Life of a Gizmo

In the human body, the half-life of most tissues is around two weeks. That is, it takes about two weeks for half of the molecules of a particular kind to be replaced. Some last longer, like calcium in bones, some much shorter. For instance, three million red blood cells die and are replaced every second. So naturally, being an engineer, I started wondering what is the half-life of an electronic gizmo? How much time will pass before half of the iPods sold today get replaced or made obsolete by something better?

For some things, the turnover rate is extremely short. Cellphones are in that phase now, as providers consolidate and upgrade their systems, and new features pop up every few months. Digital cameras are changing very fast as well, with prices on the decrease and features rapidly improving. Home computers continue to improve steadily, but they seem to have stabilized quite a bit, now that processor speed and storage space is no longer a big deal for most people. For some other things, like stereo components and TVs, prices have stayed about the same and the rate of change hasn’t been very fast. That will pick up though when the cost of plasma and LCD screens comes within reach of middle class consumers and the production numbers really take off.

So if you’re not a tech-obsessed “early adopter” and you’re comfortable waiting for the second or third generation of a product to come out, how do you judge when it’s time to buy? What I recommend is to pay attention to where the product is in it’s development cycle.

By development cycle, I don’t just mean the part of product development that occurs before an item starts manufacturing. I like to extend it out to include the first couple of product generations after a new item is introduced. New products come out all the time that have been rushed into production with little or no real-life testing by regular people. Awkward keyboards, poorly thought-out menus, buttons too small; all these things tell me that a product was designed in a hurry and is not ready for prime time. When you buy it, you are volunteering to be part of the development team, at your own expense.

If the gadget you are salivating over has been out for a while and gone through at least one major upgrade, or if it is the second or third entry into the market, you will usually get better value for your money than if you had purchased the first off the assembly line.

But here’s the catch. The downside to being a late adopter is that you have to contend with the obsolescence factor. Just as they get the bugs worked out and the ergonomics improved, out comes some totally new gizmo that changes the playing field once again. My guess is that the half-life of innovative new stuff is no more than 2-3 years. Not counting the tech addicts who upgrade their stuff every 9 months or less, most people will try to get several years of use out of their phone or laptop or mp2 player.

So, what does all this mean? It means that whole truckloads of not-so-old technology are being retired every day. Perfectly good phones, appliances, calculators, CPUs and CRTs are being put out of service. It’s a shame really.

What happens to all those gizmos that have been marginalized, rendered obsolete, disenfranchised? Some get recycled on E-Bay, many get trashed. Others are given to undeserving relatives, or more often end up in the basement. Pitifully few of these things get donated to organizations that pass them on to people in need. Instead they end up in your own personal technology museum, otherwise called your “basement” or “attic.”

What’s in your basement whose half-life could be extended in the home of a needy child?